Midweek Musings 38, 26.08.2026

 Are we prepared for the impact of this year’s El Niño? Here’s a bare-bones checklist.

Malini Shankar

Digital Discourse

Much is being made of the El Nino this year. But how much are we prepared? What lessons have been learnt and documented in the public domain? In 2009 and 1998 El Nino washed out the South-west monsoons and then the Northeast monsoons wrought havoc in South India.

United States of America’s National Oceanographic and Administrative Administration had said in a press release in 2009 El Niño conditions are evident in this sea surface temperature anomaly image based on data from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) on NASA’s Aqua satellite on July 26. The current data are compared to long-term average temperatures (1985-1997) measured by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers that have flown on several NOAA missions”.

This time too, in 2026 the impact of El Nino has ‘not arrived’ but has been felt on India’s coasts and landmass most distinctly since July 2026. Preceding season of summer was harsh too – characteristically so. El Nino is triggered by seamount eruptions in the South Pacific Ocean offsetting the seasonal weather in every part of the world. The unseasonal patterns also offset each other geographically. It is a very complex matrix.

So, how prepared are we to face the impact of unseasonal weather? Hot dry weather in July instead of pouring rain? This pushes weather cycles to unseemly seasons. Impact will be on food basket / food security, housing and shelter, evacuation infrastructure and logistics, food stations or soup kitchens for the BPL sections of society etc.?

What preparations are in place to prevent flooding in cities and rural villages? What administrative measures have been taken to stock food grains on a per capita basis? Are multi-purpose disaster shelters compatible to frail and infirm in place in anticipation of the Floods? Are there enough disaster shelters proportionate to the population (likely to be displaced during disasters) in place? For this we need to know the population that was displaced during the last El Nino induced floods. But then we do not even have the decade’s Census figures? “How can we plan infrastructure” says the dutiful politician, a rare conscientious chief minister.

Ø  In preparation for the upcoming flood it is of utmost primary importance that house ownership documents of every citizen is digitised so that in case of a flood and original documents are lost in the flood, documentation helps settle claims of compensation.

Ø  Disaster shelters have to be designed and planned to accommodate maximum of 1000 people in a country like India. Just think of the kitchen utensils needed for mass cooking on this scale! You and I would feel challenged to make 5Litres tea at one go!

Ø  The shelters may have to be built on stilts to avoid flooding indoors. That necessitates ramps to include the differently abled in this development matrix.

Ø  Shelters must have ample cooking areas and enough space for cooking food for the disaster refugees.

Ø  Evacuation instructions have to be rendered multilingual ad sign language besides braille language; they have to be also given to care givers and attenders of wheelchair dependent populace and for those suffering from mental health issues inter alia like cerebral palsy / spastics, Schizophrenia, bipolar or paralysed persons / mobility impaired people.

Ø  Shelters must have ample for the disaster refugees to sleep on comfortable mattresses without air conditioning (meaning sufficient cross ventilation has to be there).

Ø  Enough food grain and healthy sanitary cooking, with nutrition indexed food security. As per NDMA’s SOP 60 days of food rations calibrated on a per capita basis) is mandated to be kept as food stock in the custody of district administration. To India’s pride and credit, there was not one starvation death in Tsunami hit Andaman Nicobar Islands in the months of recovery after the Asian Tsunami. One Islander in deep desolate Great Nicobar Island (the southernmost Indian territory) gesticulated by cupping his right hand palm while telling me “the Administration used to give us this much Kichadi per meal, it was not filling us up but it was enough not to leave us hungry”.

Ø  “There was no shortage of clean drinking water although it was rationed” says another fisherman who survived the Tsunami in Tamil Nadu.    

Ø  Enough toilets to serve a maximum of three users per hour per toilet in one shelter have to be in place. Automated sanitization of toilets has to be timed for three persons’ use per hour.

Ø  Toilets have to be compatible to wheelchair users, frail and infirm. Volunteers have to assist differently abled infirm and frail populace in shelters to use toilets:  Toilet seats / toilet bowls have to be attached with detachable raisers to accommodate the needs of mobility impaired persons. Elderly and very frail people need assistance to sit on the toilet seat or get up from there.

Ø  Perhaps it augurs well to design few shelters only for frail, infirm differently abled and for people living with mental health / neural science issues where infrastructure is compatible and volunteer nurses are on duty 24  X 7.

Ø  Food outlets conforming to culture sensitivity have to be planned geographically. In 2009 October Northern Karnataka for instance was flooded and battered leaving thousands homeless. If you house them in disaster shelters and give them food like wheat instead of Jowar they might develop endocrine disorders compounding the stress of the situation. Similarly, fishers need fish and rice thrice a day; carb count doesn’t matter to them as they burn out so much calories while fishing. So native food is a no compromise area. It is called culture sensitive food security in disaster mitigation parlance.

Ø  Desilting dams and reservoirs go a very long way in mitigating floods and other impacts of El Nino – like mudslides, land-slides, flash floods, floods, water-borne diseases, corresponding medical preparedness and so on.  

Ø  Have the search and Rescue personnel been given refresher courses and training in every village?

Ø  Are the logistics and equipment for Search and Rescue been upgraded and maintained?

Ø   Citizens can also prepare by digitizing their own legal documents – from property documents to IDs, passports, insurance cards / papers etc. well before the Flood will start. For this reliance on accurate early warning systems and weather forecasting installations are of critical value.