Midweek Musings 16, 25.03.26

 

Bracing for ENSO

A Climate refugee in South America. 

By Malini Shankar,

Digital Discourse Foundation

UN Secretary General António Guterres reiterated his call for countries to move away from fossil fuels to renewable energy to "deliver climate security, energy security and national security". This is a desperate call given the wait for the El Nino Southern Oscillation set to commence later this year.

Urban areas and administrators need to brace themselves to the impact of El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO given the already accentuated impact of Climate Change Era we live in.

El Nino Southern Oscillation is the reversal of the Humboldt Cold Current on the western coast of South America which creates a reversal or unseasonal weather in every part of the world for about 18 to 20 months. ENSO currents are triggered by seamounts or sub marine volcanoes on the ocean floor accounting for reversal of ocean tides, eddies, currents etc that change weather patterns on land and sea surface wreaking havoc on agriculture, fishing, aviation, agriculture and the whole economy in the human landscape or what the scientific community so articulately describes as “Anthropocene”.

Now don’t get confused… ENSO is a geologically timed / cyclical ocean current distinct from the cumulative effects of Climate Change. But even the clearest thinking scientist is as of now not able to clearly distinguish differential impacts (date-wise) between Planet wide Climate Change and hemispheric impacts of ENSO. There is also no clear documentation of ENSO on convective currents of magma, ocean or atmospheric currents, distinct rainfall patterns, planet wide hydrology etc. ... so in essence impact of ENSO on hydrology itself is a vast domain.

Thus UNSG Mr. Antonio Gutierrez’s call to brace for ENSO is alacritous, to say the least. Oceans heating at sub surface and surface means polar ice caps will melt that much more: increasing sea level rise. Sea level rise accounts for increase in hydrometeorological calamities:  avalanches… blizzards, cyclone, coastal incursion, climate change, desertification, droughts, epidemics, famine, forest fire, floods, flash floods, mudslides, cloudburst, landslides, hailstorms, hurricanes, squalls, thunderstorm, urban floods… for the scope of this current article.

Avalanches pummel cities on foothills like Dehradun, Mussourie, or Simla in India, Tehran in Iran, (as if war ain’t enough) towns and cities in Switzerland etc. Civic officials and administrators need to be prepared for every kind of extreme weather. Avalanches on foothills of mountain ranges, can claim lives and maim people permanently. Civic administrators need to buttress rocky areas, mountain slopes etc to protect the urban population: that is the kind of disaster preparedness needed for avalanches.

Blizzards: Well, preventing extreme weather like blizzards calls for re-greening the city scape / re-green degraded green belts and buffering urban forests.  

Cyclones: We need cyclone shelters that addresses the needs of frail and infirm, and that of nursing mothers. The Fourth Estate has to scrutinise if the governments have misused World Bank funding for disaster mitigation.

Coastal incursion is a guaranteed fall out of sea level rise. Bioshields is the answer to coastal incursion. Bioshields like mangroves, littoral forests, sand dunes, sub marine sand bars, shoals, rocky outcrops, should be protected from human intervention like construction to prevent coastal incursion and human deaths. Island States like Indonesia, the Maldives, Philippines and India's Island states like Andaman Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep and Minicoy Islands, and Island States of Micronesia cannot undermine the crtical role of planned economies. 

Climate change is a long term cumulative impact of global weather patterns – somewhat cyclical, and geological too but summarises all hydrometeorological calamities under its belt. No amount of green response will prevent it. But combating desertification for instance is our generation’s responsibility.

Desertification has been identified by the UN as one of the greatest and most critical areas of Climate Change. Everything from watershed management to environmentally friendly agriculture and food security need to be practised to combat desertification. Desertification plunges the ground water table, brings in drought, which means famine, starvation, for both man and beast.  So drastic measures need to be undertaken to cover water security both for man and beast and compatible infrastructure needs to be in place in disaster shelters to be prepared for Desertification… like recycled water for sanitation / flush tanks in toilets. There is a whole checklist of inter-agency coordination and safety net for food and water security for Disaster shelters to be compatible to Human Development Index. For instance disaster shelters much also spare space and facilities for evacuated livestock and pet animals. Have you seen such a disaster shelter where you live? If not, do write to your DC / AC / tahsildar or head of local Administration.

Thrifty usage of fresh water, intensive agro ecological interventions (over long term) – like planting of different types of grasses, intensive afforestation, watershed management, soil conservation, Climate friendly agriculture  (dryland cropping which does not demand so much water),  and other intensive ecological interventions in large areas of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana have borne fruit. Ground water table which had plummeted to 300 feet below ground has risen to <20 feet below ground in places. If this is done successfully in rural areas it adds to sustainable development and eases the burden of migration and urbanisation. That will reduce the pressure n resources like water, sanitation, food security and livelihood in urban areas, prevent migration.  

Drought in India has been documented with best practices: Weather records are maintained and early warning systems, drought mitigation practices and distribution of drinking water are the high points of drought mitigation in India.

Flash floods can change course of rivers. What if the River near your city overruns your place of dwelling in a split second during flash floods? It can happen. Where do you have to go? Have you digitised documents of your own life so that in case of a Biblical Flood you can make a claim to compensation or restart your life?

Is there medical preparedness and are logistics in place in every town / and large or small city in India to prepare for Hydrometeorological Disasters in the day and age of Climate Change? When was the last time you witnessed a Mock Drill by civic administrators in your town / city? Do please write to your city administrators and get it documented.

Multi-purpose disaster shelters have to not just cater to the differential needs of the frail, infirm and nursing mothers but have to conform to seismic code and make space for the four legged creatures too who depend on us.  

Multi-purpose disaster shelters should offer enough space for the Climate refugees, enough food rations for each person for a minimum of two months. They should also be provided with fresh water for consumption and recycled grey water for sanitation on a per capita basis; Menstrual hygiene products, nursing mothers’ stations, medical preparedness on call / standby, fire engines, vet care, have all to be calibrated on a per capita basis for disaster preparedness.